Unemployment Duration in Germany – A comprehensive study with dynamic hazard models and P-Splines

This paper makes use of data from the German socio-economic panel to gain new insights into the determinants of unemployment duration in Germany. Due to substantial differences with respect to labour market outcomes we follow a stratified approach with respect to gender and ethnicity. To analyze unemployment duration comprehensively, dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate e.ects are allowed to vary smoothly with unemployment duration and others enter the model in an a-priori unspecified functional form. We control for unobserved heterogeneity by following a modern frailty approach. As fitting routine we employ penalized spline smoothing effects using available software in R. We demonstrate with state-of-the-art regression models how effects of covariables change, either over duration time or within their domain and reveal substantial differences across gender and ethnicities for the German labour market. Among others we find large effects of family characteristics for women and a minor importance of formal qualifications for immigrants.Unemployment, Duration Time Models, Dynamic Effets, Penalized Splines, German Socio-Economic Panel, Ethnic Labour Market Segmentation

Unemployment duration in Germany: A comprehensive study with dynamic hazard models and P-Splines

This paper makes use of data from the German socio-economic panel to gain new insights into the determinants of unemployment duration in Germany. Due to substantial differences with respect to labour market outcomes we follow a stratified approach with respect to gender and ethnicity. To analyze unemployment duration comprehensively, dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with unemployment duration and others enter the model in an a-priori unspecified functional form. We control for unobserved heterogeneity by following a modern frailty approach. As fitting routine we use penalized spline smoothing effects using available software in R. We demonstrate with state-of-the-art regression models how effects of covariables change, either over duration time or within their range and reveal substantial differences across gender end ethnicities for the German labour market. Among others we find large effects of family characteristics for women and a minor importance of formal qualifications for immigrants. --Unemployment,Duration Time Models,Dynamic Effects,Penalized Splines,German Socio-Economic Panel,Ethnic Labour Market Segmentation

Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Agent-Based Transport Models

This paper presents an analysis of the output variability of agent-based transport models. We simulated a MATSim model of the city of Hanover multiple times with identical input and evaluated the resulting travel times on different level of aggregation. On a global level, we observed minor variations of travel times. However, the results show an increased variation when examining the output on the level of districts or for individual agents. A recommendation for estimating the required number of simulation runs for a stable output of travel time for the purposed aggregation level is derived from our case study

Different Evolutionary Modifications as a Guide to Rewire Two-Component Systems

Two-component systems (TCS) are short signalling pathways generally occurring in prokaryotes. They frequently regulate prokaryotic stimulus responses and thus are also of interest for engineering in biotechnology and synthetic biology. The aim of this study is to better understand and describe rewiring of TCS while investigating different evolutionary scenarios. Based on large-scale screens of TCS in different organisms, this study gives detailed data, concrete alignments, and structure analysis on three general modification scenarios, where TCS were rewired for new responses and functions: (i) exchanges in the sequence within single TCS domains, (ii) exchange of whole TCS domains; (iii) addition of new components modulating TCS function. As a result, the replacement of stimulus and promotor cassettes to rewire TCS is well defined exploiting the alignments given here. The diverged TCS examples are non-trivial and the design is challenging. Designed connector proteins may also be useful to modify TCS in selected cases

Unsupervised Meta-Analysis on Diverse Gene Expression Datasets Allows Insight into Gene Function and Regulation

Over the past years, microarray databases have increased rapidly in size. While they offer a wealth of data, it remains challenging to integrate data arising from different studies. Here we propose an unsupervised approach of a large-scale meta-analysis on Arabidopsis thaliana whole genome expression datasets to gain additional insights into the function and regulation of genes. Applying kernel principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering, we found three major groups of experimental contrasts sharing a common biological trait. Genes associated to two of these clusters are known to play an important role in indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) mediated plant growth and development or pathogen defense. Novel functions could be assigned to genes including a cluster of serine/threonine kinases that carry two uncharacterized domains (DUF26) in their receptor part implicated in host defense. With the approach shown here, hidden interrelations between genes regulated under different conditions can be unraveled

Development of an Agent-Based Transport Model for the City of Hanover Using Empirical Mobility Data and Data Fusion

The model presented in this work is based on the agent-based simulation framework MATSim. We describe a new approach for collecting and processing the underlying data required for the development of a MATSim scenario. In cooperation with the administration of Hanover, available data was centrally collected, analysed and clustered. Using data fusion, the dataset was combined and enriched with additional information from open data sources in order to improve the model's level of detail. In combination with the German mobility survey Mobilität in Deutschland 2017, the developed model is specifically adapted for the regional characteristics of Hanover, but yet transferable to other scenarios. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V

Genetic determinants of serum vitamin B12 and their relation to body mass index

Lower serum vitamin B12 levels have been related to adverse metabolic health profiles, including adiposity. We used a Mendelian randomization design to test whether this relation might be causal. We included two Danish population-based studies (n(total) = 9311). Linear regression was used to test for associations between (1) serum vitamin B12 levels and body mass index (BMI), (2) genetic variants and serum vitamin B12 levels, and (3) genetic variants and BMI. The effect of a genetically determined decrease in serum vitamin B12 on BMI was estimated by instrumental variable regression. Decreased serum vitamin B12 associated with increased BMI (P < 1 × 10(−4)). A genetic risk score based on eight vitamin B12 associated variants associated strongly with serum vitamin B12 (P < 2 × 10(−43)), but not with BMI (P = 0.91). Instrumental variable regression showed that a 20% decrease in serum vitamin B12 was associated with a 0.09 kg/m(2) (95% CI 0.05; 0.13) increase in BMI (P = 3 × 10(−5)), whereas a genetically induced 20% decrease in serum vitamin B12 had no effect on BMI [−0.03 (95% CI −0.22; 0.16) kg/m(2)] (P = 0.74). Nevertheless, the strongest serum vitamin B12 variant, FUT2 rs602662, which was excluded from the B12 genetic risk score due to potential pleiotropic effects, showed a per allele effect of 0.15 kg/m(2) (95% CI 0.01; 0.32) on BMI (P = 0.03). This association was accentuated including two German cohorts (n(total) = 5050), with a combined effect of 0.19 kg/m(2) (95% CI 0.08; 0.30) (P = 4 × 10(−4)). We found no support for a causal role of decreased serum vitamin B12 levels in obesity. However, our study suggests that FUT2, through its regulation of the cross-talk between gut microbes and the human host, might explain a part of the observational association between serum vitamin B12 and BMI. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-016-0215-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Urinary metabolomics reveals glycemic and coffee associated signatures of thyroid function in two population-based cohorts

Triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) as the main secretion products of the thyroid affect nearly every human tissue and are involved in a broad range of processes ranging from energy expenditure and lipid metabolism to glucose homeostasis. Metabolomics studies outside the focus of clinical manifest thyroid diseases are rare. The aim of the present investigation was to analyze the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of urinary metabolites with serum free T4 (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH).Urine Metabolites of participants of the population-based studies Inter99 (n = 5620) and Health2006/Health2008 (n = 3788) were analyzed by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Linear or mixed linear models were used to detect associations between urine metabolites and thyroid function.Cross-sectional analyses revealed positive relations of alanine, trigonelline and lactic acid with FT4 and negative relations of dimethylamine, glucose, glycine and lactic acid with log(TSH). In longitudinal analyses, lower levels of alanine, dimethylamine, glycine, lactic acid and N,N-dimethylglycine were linked to a higher decline in FT4 levels over time, whereas higher trigonelline levels were related to a higher FT4 decline. Moreover, the risk of hypothyroidism was higher in subjects with high baseline trigonelline or low lactic acid, alanine or glycine values.The detected associations mainly emphasize the important role of thyroid hormones in glucose homeostasis. In addition, the predictive character of these metabolites might argue for a potential feedback of the metabolic state on thyroid function. Besides known metabolic consequences of TH, the link to the urine excretion of trigonelline, a marker of coffee consumption, represents a novel finding of this study and given the ubiquitous consumption of coffee requires further research